Southern New Hampshire Real Estate and Short Sales: Does "The Big Short" Fall Short? Part 1

Does "The Big Short" Fall Short? Part 1

Don't get me wrong, I liked it.  I mean, it had comedy, profanity and a bathing beauty in a bubble bathExplaining Subprime Mortgages in a bubblebath explaining (sort of) the subprime mortgage market.  I like absurdity as much as the next person so what's not to like?  And, as a movie taken solely as a depiction of the mania, stupidity and arrogance that was rampant on Wall Street at the time, it's great!

However, if it's taken as a complete explanation of what really happened to cause that mania (the stupidity and arrogance just came naturally, I'm sure.) it falls far short. 

You're probably saying to yourself, "who cares if "The Big Short" is a huge oversimplification?  It's a movie."

Well, unfortunately, it seems to  me that it is being pushed as far more than a movie.  It's really being pushed as a true and complete representation of the underlying causes of "the crash".  And, if we accept this gross oversimplification as the full story, any decisions we make about how to prevent something like this happening again, are bound to be flawed.

So what did "The Big Short" oversimplify (or leave out entirely)?

Let's start with poor Lou Ranieri and Mortgage Backed Securities.  Mortgage Backed Securities had been around for many years before the crash and were bought and sold by many investors including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with nary a problem.  No, it wasn't Lou that caused the problem but if you want a name and an idea to point the finger at, wait a moment and I'll give you one.

One of the problems with pooling thousands of loans into huge packages is how to assign risk levels with something as disparate and messy as mortgages.  There are so many moving parts; maturity dates, who's going to refinance, who's going to default. 

Who's going to default?  That was a big, messy question.  The slicing and dicing called "tranching" helped somewhat from the investor point of view because they could choose their risk level by choosing which Tranche level to buy and that worked fine for the calamities that can befall a single borrower and cause them to default...loss of job, illness. 

Still there remained the question of correlation.  If home values drop in an area and someone loses their home, would that not affect the values of other homes in the area and if other homes also lost value would that not possibly cause other people to default?  How do you correlate that risk? 

The traditional way was to gather reams of data on actual defaults and analyze them....zzzzz.

Enter David X. Li, one of the quants (Wall Street's name for their mathematical wizards, not to be confused with the squints on "Bones") at JP Morgan Chase and his Gaussian Copula Function (I know it sounds vaguely obscene but get your mind out of the gutter.  This is high math, people.)

Actually, to be precise, Li did not invent the Gaussian Copula Function (apparently that is a standard technique in the wild world of statistical analysis) but he was the one who came up with a way to apply it to the complicated correlation problem and to make it simpler, the equation didn't even look at historical data.  Instead it used market data about the prices of....ready...

....credit default swaps.Gaussian Copula Function

It was an elegant, simple and desperately flawed mathematical equation. The problem was that the folks who had the brain power to understand the flaws in the equation lacked the real world experience to recognize them as flaws and the folks in the real world who were using the simple risk numbers popping out of that magic black box lacked the brain power to really understand the equation and it's ommissions and inherent dangers.

So, everyone...banks, investment firms, rating agencies and regulators...all bought that bridge.  And why not?  They believed it was a safe investment.Bridge - The Big Short Falls Short

Oversimplification will bite you in the butt every time.

One of the most disturbing things to me is that, despite the hideous outcome of this exercise, this concept is still in use.  Whether it's to calculate Net Present Value (to decide whether to foreclose or try to work with a distressed homeowner) or to determine the value of YOUR home using Fannie Mae's Collateral Underwriter, the financial market and the feds just can't let go of this desire to reduce the complex to a simple formula.

And, that is not good because...why? 

Because...

Oversimplification will bite you in the butt every time.

Next up...the Fed.  A brief (very brief, I promise) history and a look at their policies leading up to this mess.

Be patient and stop salivating...I know you can't wait...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comment balloon 13 commentsJoy Baker • February 01 2016 10:01PM

Comments

Joy Baker ... I like that the movie, however flawed or guilty of over-simplication of a very detailed fiasco, kicked-off some deep thought and conversation about the financial collapse here on AR.  I've seen quite a few posts regarding the movie and its message ... including one of my own.  THAT can never be bad, in my estimation ...

Will be breathlessly awaiting the next segment ...

Gene

Posted by Gene Mundt, IL/WI Mortgage Originator - FHA/VA/Conv/Jumbo/Portfolio/Refi, 708.921.6331 - 40+ yrs experience (NMLS #216987, IL Lic. 031.0006220, WI Licensed. APMC NMLS #175656) over 2 years ago

Ironically we're heading down that once road again. Seems like history always repeats itself. 

Posted by Val Evans over 2 years ago

Gene, I just read your post!  Yes! We did survive! Thanks for taking the time to comment.

Posted by Joy Baker, So NH RE & Short Sale Specialist (RE/MAX Insight) over 2 years ago

Hi Val. It does seem possible, doesn't it?  Thanks for taking the time to comment.

Posted by Joy Baker, So NH RE & Short Sale Specialist (RE/MAX Insight) over 2 years ago

History does repeat itself and will continue to repeat until people wake up and greed and profit is no longer the end game ... at least not at the expense of so called innocent people.

Posted by Kathleen Daniels, San Jose Homes for Sale-Probate & Trust Specialist (KD Realty - 408.972.1822) over 2 years ago

FEATURED IN CRAP-TACULAR

 

MR. CRAPPY has not seen the movie ... yet. BUT (pun intended) there are many people who will be believe the movie as the truth ... the whole truth ... and nothing but the truth ... and that stinks! 

Posted by Kathleen Daniels, San Jose Homes for Sale-Probate & Trust Specialist (KD Realty - 408.972.1822) over 2 years ago

Oh, Kathleen you make me laugh!  Thanks for the Feature! And, you're right about history continuing to repeat itself. 

Posted by Joy Baker, So NH RE & Short Sale Specialist (RE/MAX Insight) over 2 years ago

It is my opinion that the ever increasing toxic slurry of mortgages that were being bundled together and sold as grade A, was the most damning part of the last recession. 

Posted by Myrl Jeffcoat, Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent (GreatWest Realty) over 2 years ago

There is no doubt that contributed, Myrl.

Posted by Joy Baker, So NH RE & Short Sale Specialist (RE/MAX Insight) over 2 years ago

Joy, great post on this movie, and have heard from others it was pretty good, but by no means explained the whole picture. 

Posted by Joan Cox, Denver Real Estate - Selling One Home at a Time (Metro Brokers - House to Home, Inc. - Denver Real Estate - 720-231-6373) over 2 years ago

Thank you, Joan. 

Posted by Joy Baker, So NH RE & Short Sale Specialist (RE/MAX Insight) over 2 years ago

Thanks for the intro Joy, this is on my list of movies to see soon, just added it to my list on netflix.

 

Posted by Bob Crane, Forestland Experts! 715-204-9671 (Woodland Management Service / Woodland Real Estate, Keller Williams fox cities) almost 2 years ago

The movie is based on a true story. It is amazing that so few people knew what is coming on. 

Posted by Inna Ivchenko, Realtor® • Green • GRI • HAFA • PSC Los Angeles CA (Barcode Properties) almost 2 years ago

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